10 Things to Know About Real Estate in 2010
Is 2010 the year to buy a house? It certainly
looks that way: After a steep run-up in prices during the first
half of the decade, home values have plummeted back to 2003
levels. Fixed mortgage rates are sitting near record lows. And
the foreclosure epidemic--while painful for many home
owners--has created some wonderful opportunities for bargain
hunters. If that's not enough, Uncle Sam is handing out
thousands of dollars in tax credits to nearly all first-time
buyers and the bulk of existing home owners who close a purchase
by June.
But while the 2010 outlook appears inviting,
there's one key catch. "You need to have a stable job," says
Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody's Economy.com. The
economy is showing signs of life, but the unemployment rate is
already at 10 percent and expected to go higher. And while those
mortgage rates are attractive, buying a house makes sense only
if you can bank on your income stream. So before you consider
purchasing a home, take a hard look at your job, your company,
and your industry.
That said, here are 10 things to know about
real estate in 2010:
1. Prices to bottom: After more than
three years of falling, real estate values have shown signs of
stabilization in recent months. At the national level, home
prices slid nearly 9 percent between the third quarter of 2008
and the same period this year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller
home price report. That's a notable improvement from the second
quarter's nearly 15 percent annual drop and the first quarter's
19 percent decline. This improvement will give way to a bottom
in home prices--finally!--in 2010, but not before additional
declines, Zandi says. Zandi projects home prices will hit bottom
in the third quarter of 2010 after logging a peak-to-trough
decline of roughly 37 percent, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller
national home price index. "That means we've got another roughly
10 percent [decline] to go," Zandi says.
2. Mortgage delinquencies up: Amid
falling home prices and a nasty labor market, roughly 1 in every 7
mortgages was either past due or in foreclosure by the end of the
third quarter--the highest delinquency rate in the 37-year history
of the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey.
Two factors are expected to drive delinquencies even higher next
year. First, nearly 1 in 4 homeowners currently owes more on their
mortgage than the property is worth, which increases their odds of
default. And secondly, the national unemployment rate--which already
stands at 10 percent--will peak at about 10.5 percent in the first
quarter of 2010, says Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global
Insight. Additional job losses mean more borrowers won't be able to
pay their mortgage bills. "The [delinquency] rate is going to stay
up there for quite a while because the job market is going to be
really weak for a while," Newport says.
3. Foreclosures move upstream:
The number of foreclosure sales will
increase to about 1.9 million in 2010,
according to Moody's Economy.com. And
while we've already seen a growing
number of more expensive homes heading
into foreclosure, Heather Fernandez,
vice president of marketing at the real
estate search engine Trulia, expects the
trend to pick up steam next year. (Trulia
is a U.S. News partner.) "We are
poised in 2010 to see a surge of
foreclosures from prime borrowers.
Hundreds of billions of dollars in
option [adjustable rate] mortgages are
set to be recast" next year, Fernandez
says. Option adjustable rate mortgages
allow borrowers to make lower monthly
payments for an initial period, after
which the payments adjust--or
"recast"--higher. For some borrowers,
the new payments can be more than twice
their initial payments. Combined with
other factors, like the loss of a job, a
recasting option adjustable rate
mortgage can make borrowers more likely
to default. "These are [properties] at
higher price points [and] potentially in
more desirable neighborhoods," Fernandez
says. 4. Mortgage rates to rise:
Anyone who purchased a home in 2009 was
presented with some extremely attractive
mortgage rates. Rates on 30-year, fixed
mortgages fell to an average of 4.88
percent in November, down sharply from
6.09 a year earlier. A key factor behind
the plunge was a Federal Reserve
program, first announced in November of
2008, that purchased debt and
mortgage-backed securities from Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac. But the program is
slated to expire at the end of the first
quarter, and if private investors don't
step up, fixed mortgage rates could
jump. (The Fed, of course, could always
decide to extend the program.) The
unwinding of this Fed program, the
improving economy, and mounting concern
over government deficits could push
rates on 30-year, fixed mortgages to
roughly 5.5 percent by mid-2010 and
close to 6 percent by the end of the
year, says Mike Larson of Weiss
Research. "Almost all signs to me point
higher," Larson says.
5. Buyer's market remains:
With prices still falling, mortgage
rates remaining historically attractive,
and additional homes hitting the market
in the form of foreclosures, the
dynamics of the real estate market will
continue to favor buyers over sellers in
2010. That means those looking to buy a
home next year should not feel pressured
to act impulsively. "You don't need to
have a sense of urgency, but understand
that as time progresses the balance of
power as we get into 2010 is going to
slowly but surely shift away from
[buyers]," Larson says. "It is not going
to be a strong seller's market, but it
will be more evenly distributed as the
year goes on." Data from the real estate
firm Zillow show that home buyers are
already losing the leverage they once
enjoyed. While home buyers landed a
median discount of 4.6 percent off
listing prices in January, the size of
the gap fell to 2.7 percent by October.
Expect this gap to close further as 2010
marches on.
6. Modification plan could be
modified: While the Obama
administration has put nearly 700,000
borrowers into temporarily restructured
mortgages, it had found permanent fixes
for just 31,382 struggling homeowners
through November. What's more, critics
have identified two key shortcomings of
the government's $75 billion
antiforeclosure plan. First, the program
isn't much help for borrowers struggling
to stay in their homes as the result of
a job loss. And the rickety labor market
is a key factor behind rising
delinquencies. At the same time, the
plan does not sufficiently address the
issue of negative equity--owing more on
your home loan than the property is
worth--which also works to increase
foreclosures. "The current modification
program does not address negative equity
and is therefore destined to fail,"
Laurie Goodman, a senior managing
director at Amherst Securities Group,
told a congressional committee in
written testimony on December 8. "It
must be amended to explicitly address
this problem." Zandi says the government
may move next year to overhaul the
modification program in two ways:
improving troubled borrowers' negative
equity positions by writing down some of
the mortgage principal, and helping to
turn troubled homeowners into renters.
7. FHA lending standards may
increase: While banks have jacked up
lending standards in the face of
mounting delinquencies, mortgages backed
by the Federal Housing
Administration--which come with a
minimum down payment of just 3.5
percent--have remained accessible to a
wide swath of borrowers. The FHA
guarantees nearly 30 percent of new-home
purchase mortgages today, up sharply
from just 3 percent in 2006. But the
rapid growth has occurred alongside an
increase in mortgage delinquencies. As a
result, the FHA's reserves have dipped
below congressionally mandated levels.
The development has put pressure on the
Obama administration to beef up its
requirements for agency-backed home
loans. In early December, the Department
of Housing and Urban Development
announced that it would make several
changes to FHA mortgage requirements:
raising up-front cash requirements,
boosting minimum credit scores, and
perhaps charging more for insurance
premiums. Additional new restrictions
may be in store. Taken together, the
developments could work to choke off the
supply of mortgage credit to borrowers
who can't get financing elsewhere.
8. Tax credit available through
June: On top of lower prices and
cheap mortgage rates, Uncle Sam is
offering an additional incentive to get
buyers into the market next year. In
early November, President Obama signed a
bill extending and expanding a popular
tax perk for home buyers. The
legislation gives qualified first-time
home buyers a tax credit of up to $8,000
if they close the purchase of a primary
residence by the end of June. Meanwhile,
qualified current home owners are
eligible for a credit of up to $6,500
when they buy their next principal
residence. But while the tax perk may
make a home purchase more tempting,
would-be buyers should make sure they
have the job security and financial
wherewithal to handle the transaction
before going ahead. "Don't let [the home
buyer tax credit] be the thing that
drives you to act," Larson says.
9. Markets will vary a great deal
by region: The performance of the
national housing market is much less
important that the dynamics of your
local market, and sales and pricing
trends will vary a great deal from one
area to the next in 2010. "There will be
geographic pockets where the values will
still continue to decline, and there
will be geographic pockets where they
increase," said Dale Siegel, a mortgage
broker and the author of The New
Rules for Mortgages. That means
anyone interested in buying real estate
next year can't just read the national
headlines. Instead, find a good blog
that covers the local housing market and
consider speaking with a real estate
agent with experience in the area. Check
out online listings--pay close attention
to pricing and inventory trends. And
make sure to head out to open houses to
get a firsthand feel for the market.
10. Mobile maps can help:
Advances in technology have enabled
would-be home buyers to increase the
efficiency of their searches. For
example, Zillow's iPhone app allows home
buyers to see the estimated values and
listed prices of the properties they
pass on the street. The app, which is
free, has been downloaded more than
830,000 times. Trulia has unveiled a
similar product that allows users to
find nearby open houses as well. "If you
are sitting in a neighborhood having
brunch on a Sunday, you can very easily
pull up your phone [and] walk into open
houses," says Trulia's Fernandez.
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